WHO : The New Coronavirus Vaccine is Not a Panacea to Save the World's Economy

According to the latest data from the World Health Organization, there are currently at least 175 experimental new coronavirus vaccines in the world in the development process. However, the new coronavirus vaccine will not be available until November this year at the earliest, and mass production will have to wait until the middle of next year.

However, even if the vaccine is successfully developed, the possibility of changing the global economic landscape is still very slim.

According to a report on the website of 'Economist' on August 12, Capital Economics Chief Economist Neil Schilling agreed with the above view. He believes that multiple factors should be considered, the most important of which is whether the vaccine is effective.

For particular concern is that according to the regulations of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the immune effect of vaccines must reach at least 80%. However, the standard for the new coronavirus vaccine is reduced to 50%, which indicates that the development time of the new coronavirus vaccine is obviously insufficient, and it is difficult for some vaccines to be proven effective.

Another issue that must be considered is the possible immunization period and safety of the vaccine and whether the public is willing to vaccinate, especially if the development time is too short.
The report pointed out that the mass production of vaccines cannot be ignored. Pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Sinopharm, which are leaders in vaccine research and development, said that nearly 1 billion doses of vaccine could be manufactured this year, and another 7 billion doses will be manufactured by 2021. However, these figures include a variety of vaccines currently under development, and it is not clear which vaccine will ultimately be successful and how long it will be in production.

The report predicts that the most likely scenario is that the actual number of available vaccines is far less than expected. Therefore, at least initially, there may be a shortage of supply, which will delay the emergence of herd immunity.

According to the report, in fact, global mass production is more likely to be affected by production costs. It is estimated that the price of each dose of the new coronavirus vaccine is between US$20 and US$50, which may prevent several emerging markets and poor countries from achieving herd immunity as soon as possible.

At the same time, developed countries have a large number of vaccines under development. This situation means that rich and poor countries will achieve herd immunity at two speeds.